Welcome to the SUPER BOWL EDITION OF DICK PICKS: the only online NFL gambling column that has had a folk song written about it (it’s that one where the old woman swallows progressively larger animals to kill the previous animal that she has swallowed.)*
*if I could interrupt myself for a moment, I looked up the song to make sure I hadn’t imagined it and I found this version which is so fucked up in so many ways and I can’t stop watching it and laughing and crying and I’m very scared.
ARE YOU SUPER FOR SOME BOWLDAY?! A BOWLDAY NIGHT SUPER??!!! IT’S SUPER BOWL WEEKEND AND I’M SO GODDAMNED DELIRIOUS THAT I NEED TO BURN MYSELF JUST SO I CAN FEEL AGAIN! *burns self, writes the best goddamned song to ever infringe on Trent Reznor’s intellectual property* DFFFFF HAAAAAAAFFFFF GYYYYYEEEHHHHHH I AM TOO EXCITED AND I FORGOT HOW WORDS ARE MADE. REEL IT IN MOTHERFUCKER!!!
*smashes vending machine with several well-placed headbutts, turns and adjusts tie*
Good evening! While it is an undeniable shame to be presenting you with the final DICK PICKS of the 2014 NFL season, it is a pleasure, as always, to have my readers embark upon this latest gridiron journey alongside me. And what a year it has been! The league managed to make the casual observer view it as a disgusting collection of violent criminals and monsters in a year where none of its players were even arrested for murder.
The league year started with one of the more terrible sports scandals in the past few years, as Ray Rice knocked his wife out cold and everyone kind of forgot what those words meant or why it was even bad at all until they got to actually see it. Then they were like “Wow I mean, hitting women is bad in theory, sure. But in practice? SO MUCH WORSE YOU GUYS!” Then there were like two hundred some-odd regular season games that nobody remembers and don’t matter anymore. Finally, the season wrapped up with the dumbest scandal in recent sports history, the worst part of which is that everybody said “balls” so much last week and laughed at everyone saying “balls” so much that I feel like saying “balls” isn’t going to be as funny anymore. If this turns out to be true I am going to hunt Roger Goodell for sport. I’m not switching to “nuts.” What am I a fucking child? He can call it a goddamned “footnut” for all I care. If he ruined “balls” for me there will be hell to pay.
Could there be a more fitting eulogy to this NFL season though? The NFL swinging it’s big investigative dick around acting like it can be trusted to investigate who stole the nose right off its face (the Jews?) And to finally break out the big guns for such a trivial matter, and to act like a company who can’t make a phone call so a fucking casino can solve a matter that scientists can’t even agree on? This is the NFL at its ballsiest, most asinine, and least self-aware. After a season of trying to trick itself into thinking it could save the world, the NFL is now using that grandiose misunderstanding of its own importance to eat its own ass from the back. 2014 will be known as the year the NFL stopped slamming its dick in the car door, and started eating its own ass while slamming its dick in a drawer instead.
But enough about those fat cats in the league office. There’s a fucking SUPER BOWL to talk about! I told you last week I would go over some prop bets, and then I looked at them and they’re all predictably stupid toss ups (including the coin toss. HEADS OR TAILS?! IT’S LIKE DECIDING BETWEEN MY TWO UGLY CHILDREN!) There are a couple that look like decent value (Shane Vereen’s longest reception at over 12.5 yards is paying even money, Dont’a Hightower is +105 to have more than 7.5 tackles + assists, Seattle is +155 to have more sacks than New England in the game) but nothing stands out as a must-bet. There is, however, one prop bet that I bet the sharks in Vegas are watching the action on to see if the betting tips off some inside information:
NEW ENGLAND VS. SEATTLE: COLOR OF GATORADE THROWN
That’s right. The color of the Gatorade poured on the winning coach. Right now Orange has the best odds at +155, followed by No Gatorade/Liquid (+241) Yellow (+259) Clear/Water (+312) Red (+693) Blue (+693) and Green (+1095.)
First of all, how much does Bill Belichick’s presence in this game have to do with that No Gatorade/Liquid line? Do people think he’ll melt if he gets wet? Has he already threatened to bang the mothers of anyone who dares to soil his hoodie? If this game was Pete Carroll vs. Pete Carroll even the losing coach would get a Gatorade bath just for doing one swell heck of a job proving that there was never any airplane debris recovered from the Pentagon.
Secondly, if you’re a degenerate gambler (WHICH I AM!) wouldn’t you just bribe the equipment managers to only stock green Gatorade during the game, or maybe red or blue so it’s not so obvious, and then collect a huge payday? Would this be the new Ballghazi?
“Several members of the Seahawks training staff are under investigation for green Gatorade found on the sidelines during the Super Bowl.”
“It was orange the last time.” says one anonymous source.
Jesus Christ somebody make this happen. This could be the greatest scandal in the history of modern sports. What would they call it? Gatoradegate?! Radorgate?! GATEorade?! Please, if you know the person who mixes sideline rehydrating sports drinks for these teams, call your guy and make this dream a reality.
Finally, for the last time this season (and possibly for the last time ever, since without my gambling I tend to fall harder into my other vices and may not survive the offseason) I will say ON TO THE PICK! I will give my pick at the end, along with my best guess at a final score. It’s the Super Bowl, so BOTH TEAMS are in caps.
SUPER BOWL XLIX: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
This one is going to come down to good old X’s and O’s. Whichever team can hug and kiss the other team until they get super weirded out and don’t want to play anymore is going to win by a mile. Now, if that isn’t the strategy either of these coaches elects to use (just try it ONCE for chrissakes IT’S GOING TO WORK) then things become a little more complicated.
Seattle is a very bad matchup for the Patriots. Possibly the worst. They can get pressure with their front four to keep Brady off-balance, run the ball on offense to keep the defense on the field, and make enough throws to convert first downs/take advantage of over-aggressive defenders. This game could be a disaster for the Patriots.
New England on the other hand, is a very bad matchup for the Seahawks. Possibly the worst. They have an accurate quarterback that can hit quick throws underneath, forcing the secondary to play more aggressive and make mistakes, cornerbacks who can be trusted one on one with Seattle’s sub-par receivers so the front seven can focus on stuffing the run, and athletic linebackers who can keep Russell Wilson in the pocket. This game could be a disaster for the Seahawks.
Well fuck, that didn’t really settle anything, did it?
So who has the goddamned edge here? Since the line opened at Seattle -2, moved to New England -2, and then settled back at a Pick ‘Em last night, I would say that Vegas doesn’t even know.
A lot of people think the edge goes to New England, because they’re going to be in the dreaded “Fuck You Mode” after everyone has been calling them cheaters and liars for the past two weeks. But isn’t Seattle always playing in Fuck You Mode? Isn’t that the entire culture and attitude of this team? Don’t forget that this team was an underdog in last year’s Super Bowl and only won that game by 1000 points against literally the greatest offense in NFL history. And now (if only briefly) they were underdogs again? Did you motherfuckers not learn your lessons? At this point, Marshawn Lynch would probably run over his own children to grab that Lombardi Trophy from Roger Goodell and pretend it was his dick and rub his big silver football-tipped dick on that stupid ginger’s face. And then instead of saying “I’m going to Disneyworld” in his Super Bowl MVP speech he would say “I’m going to DICKsneyworld” and just keep right on pretending that trophy was his dick. So you CANNOT say the Patriots have the edge in attitude or motivation or FUCK YOU factor. I will not allow it.
That’s not where the real edge comes in this game though. The real edge comes on the sidelines. Pete Carroll was thrown some softballs this post-season in Ron Rivera and Mike McCarthy, who basically used his own JetBlue points to book the Seahawks’ trip to Arizona. Belichick isn’t going to make it that easy on him. Carroll is a good team builder, and a solid scheme guy, but his in-game decision making is lacking and nobody has the weird and almost autistic attention to small and annoying details that Belichick does. Belichick spent three entire days last week rubbing balls (see? It doesn’t have the same charm. I’ll get you for this Goodell! GOOOOOOODDDDEEEELLLLLLLLL!!!!!) just to make a fucking point. He will find something that fucks with the Seahawks in a way they didn’t even know they could be fucked with. It may be a little devious, and it may blur the lines between fair and unfair, but he will cook something up to get into their heads and take away the things that they love. I wouldn’t be surprised if this week the footballs are made out of the skin of all of Pete Carroll’s childhood pets.
PATRIOTS 30 vs. SEAHAWKS 21