Welcome to another edition of DICK PICKS: the only online NFL gambling column that supports single payer healthcare especially if the single payer is your big fat mom.
After a stunning first week of action I have started the season exactly where I wanted to: in a large hole dug by my bad opinions. Technically it is not my fault that the football men did not do what I wanted them to because their main goal is to make me upset and provide more content for this column. Trust me dear reader, you don’t want to see me when I’m happy. It’s just a lot of fist pumping and bad ABBA karaoke.
There is not too much that you can set in stone after one week of games but I can take a stab at a few certainties and a few illusions. First, I believe it is a certainty that Scott Tolzien’s respect of our nation’s theme song has earned him a long career on an NFL roster. Instead of making himself a distraction and having an opinion that old white men don’t like, he kept his mouth shut and let his play do the talking. Sure, his play said “please help me I seem to have gotten my head stuck in a large sack of oats” but at least it did not say something controversial like “black people should not be vilified for peaceful protest.” Another certainty from this week is that Los Angeles is going to be the perfect spot for the 2028 Olympics. If they can’t get a couple thousand people to show up for NFL football I think traffic will be a breeze when the largest attraction in town will be some men running outside or small teens jumping on a mat. Maybe the teens will draw larger numbers because LA is full of horny perverts but why be horny for teens in a sweaty arena when Brett Ratner’s house has AC and a pool?
As for my week one illusions? Well, obviously Alex Smith and Sam Bradford still stink and the Jaguars and Bills will enjoy exactly one week in first place but the biggest illusion is that the NFL gives a shit about anything but white middle-class money that sells beer ads. Ask Hank Williams Jr.! So why am I still tuning in, aside from my obvious gambling addiction and well-documented hypocrisy? Well, as a lower middle-class white American I do not have to answer your questions. ON TO THE PICKS! Last week’s picks went 5-10 (but a ROBUST 5-10) and as always, home team is in caps.
Houston +6.5 vs. CINCINNATI
Houston finally benched Tom Savage which was a solid move after he showed far less pocket awareness and mobility than the lighter that is constantly falling out of my pocket. Even though Houston gave up 10 (!) sacks Cincy’s offensive line may somehow be worse and when you’re playing JJ Watt it is not a good idea to protect your quarterback with a bunch of pine cones glued into the shape of a human. I am preemptively putting Andy Dalton in the concussion protocol and would recommend that he update his will.
Tennessee -2 vs. JACKSONVILLE
Ah, two teams that will lean heavily on their defenses and running games. Old school, smashmouth football. The kind that gets you the 1pm CBS slot with announcers named like, Chip and Tyler, whose chemistry can be best described as “sympathetic dads waiting outside a Macy’s changing room.”
BALTIMORE -9 vs. Cleveland
This line feels too high for a group of scrappy underdogs going up against a division rival that is maybe not that good but do you even care? Because I don’t. Get this game out of my face.
CAROLINA -7 vs. Buffalo
Buffalo raided Carolina in the offseason for their new coach and GM so one would assume that this is the franchise they are trying to model themselves after to hopefully regain their former glory of falling down on their ass in the Super Bowl. They have already begun handcuffing their better-than-they-deserve quarterback who the fans would adore if he was a white guy so it looks like they are on the right path.
NEW ORLEANS +6.5 vs. New England
I do not want to overreact to the Patriots’ week 1 loss, but I also do not want to UNDERreact. That defense was bad. No, bad isn’t a strong enough word. That defense was atrocious. If that defense was a movie it would be a snuff film starring all of your childhood pets. And New Orleans’ wasn’t much better. That would be more like a snuff film starring all of your childhood stuffed animals but if they could scream. Either way these teams are probably going to score 150 points and the last team with the ball is likely to win.
Arizona -7 vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Arizona is giving a touchdown on the road after losing their best player for possibly the rest of the season. Instead of dong the smart thing and preparing for their time without Andrew Luck by kicking the tires on Kaep, the Colts decided to roll with Scott Tolzien. It was owner Jim Irsay’s decision but I guarantee Chuck Pagano gets fired for it. I’m assuming when Irsay got pulled over for driving on painkillers he just threw his bag of Oxys into one of his other cars and said “Never making that mistake again.”
KANSAS CITY -5.5 vs. Philadelphia
The upside to running away with the Patriots game is that Andy Reid ended up with extra timeouts that he gets to redeem for pancakes at any Kansas City Denny’s because they stopped arguing with him about it a while ago.
PITTSBURGH -5 vs. Minnesota
Ben is a significantly better quarterback when he plays at home, and I can only assume that’s because every time he enters an unfamiliar environment he starts screaming and hitting his head against the wall until they shoot him up with Xylazine and wrap him in a thundershirt. Those effects probably don’t wear off entirely before game time but if they didn’t do it he’d probably just escape and kidnap some poor woman and that’s not something the team wants to deal with again.
TAMPA BAY -7 vs. Chicago
Ah we go from the old Redemption Story Rapist to the new Redemption Story Rapist. What would make this game interesting is if the real redemption story turned out to be Mike Glennon getting a win against his old team but that’s not going to happen so what would REALLY make this game interesting and probably have no effect on its outcome is if instead of Mike Glennon the Bears started A HUMAN SKELETON. Let the skeleton play, John Fox. He might surprise you.
Miami + 4 vs. LA CHARGERS
You put Jay Cutler in an atmosphere where nobody gives a shit and the twenty people in the building are texting their agents and that man is going to THRIVE.
OAKLAND -13.5 vs. NY Jets
I really appreciate that Derek Carr is a weird Jesus freak because otherwise it would be difficult to dislike this Raiders team. It would be especially cool to find out that since the NFL didn’t work out for his brother David he decided to forsake Jesus Christ and become a voodoo priest so that every time Derek gets close to the playoffs all David needs to do is snap a chicken’s neck and pop a few pins in a FatHead to bring his little brother back down to earth. For the record this is NOT why my little brother has a metal rod in his leg I assure you neither of us is good at anything so jealousy is a non-issue. Okay he has a really cool dog but I wouldn’t use voodoo to snap his leg so I could go over and walk his dog I can do that whenever I want regardless and why all of a sudden am I the one who is on trial here? I will take no further questions.
Washington +2.5 vs. LA RAMS
It is amazing that somehow both of these teams lost the Robert Griffin trade and even more amazing that every fan in the league is happy about it. The fact that two NFL games are happening at the same time in Los Angeles this Sunday is going to be talked about a lot by nobody who lives in Los Angeles. The NHL having two teams in LA somehow makes more sense and when you are doing a worse job than Gary Bettman somebody needs to take your keys and call you a cab and you’ll have to pay the fee after you puke and piss in the cab.
Dallas -2.5 vs DENVER
Denver was lucky to escape against the Chargers and Dallas was lucky to be facing a Giants team whose only reliable available offensive player was up way past his bedtime. This game is going to blow. People are going to get sucked in by the big names but that’s how they got people to watch like six Oceans 11 movies. Imagine this as Oceans 11 where instead of robbing the casino they just sit there playing blackjack and staying on every hand.
SEATTLE -14 vs. San Francisco
Don’t worry Kyle Shanahan, nobody expected you to have success this season. In fact nobody, not even 49ers fans, even wanted you to have success. This year, or any year. Just keep doing what you’re doing and everyone will be very happy.
Green Bay +3 vs. ATLANTA
I don’t know. I’m shrugging my shoulders, taking the points, and hoping for an entertaining game but for all my luck Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers will both get hit on the head by a rogue coin toss and go into the concussion protocol and this game will end up being a frustrating montage of half-back dives, bubble screens and half-back draws. If that’s the case Mike McCarthy would have to hold his play sheet over his crotch to hide his erection.
NY GIANTS -3 vs. Detroit
The logic here is simple. Matt Stafford is bad at football when he is outside. I think it’s because when he’s outside he can smell pies on windowsills and he starts to float towards them like a cartoon hobo so they have to put extra weights in his shoes that make it especially hard to play football. Now, if there are too many pies that might give him the floating strength to balance the weights and make him an adequate to above-average passer, so if I were to give any advice to the Giants it would be: just bake one pie.
LAST WEEK: 5-10-0
SEASON TOTAL: 5-10-0