Welcome to another edition of DICK PICKS: the only online NFL gambling column that contains Game of Thrones spoilers! (The fat man dies and can’t finish the books and then whoever tries to finish them will not live up to the expectations of the fan base.)
Also, at the Red Wedding all your favorite characters die & there’s not a damn thing you can do about it. (via nydailynews.com)
Another week below .500. Now I know how the Jets feel ZING! No, but really, I’m doing an awful job this season and I can’t make any excuses, I just don’t know as much as I pretend to. But that’s okay! If you’d been coming here for real life gambling advice you would have had to pawn your computer by now and would probably be living under a bridge and at first you’d sing that song about living under a bridge and think it was kind of funny but then you would start to hate the song and it would become infuriating because every time somebody asked where you lived you would have to say “under the bridge” and then the song gets stuck in your head again. Fuck THAT.
So what happened this week? Well, a bunch of teams are 9-3 now and everyone is trying to figure out which one of them is the best and really the only definitive answer is “NOT THE CARDINALS.” Dallas lost and is currently sitting outside of the playoffs LIKE I TOLD YOU THEY WOULD BE. The NFC South got slightly less terrible, as now the division leaders are only TWO GAMES below .500. The AFC North tried to take the entire week off, but the Bengals were playing Tampa Bay so despite their best efforts they couldn’t fuck up quite badly enough. Johnny Football made his debut! And he scored a touchdown! And now he’s getting benched again!What a country! We’re coming up on the home stretch, with only four games to go and the playoff races (kind of) shaking out, so let’s cut the bullshit and do this fucking thing. ON TO THE PICKS! Last week’s picks went 7-9-0. As always, home team is in caps.
CHICAGO +3.5 vs. Dallas
Sure, the Bears are kind of a disaster right now, but how could I resist continuing to pick against the Cowboys in must-win games? I mean, maybe it’s not a MUST win, with the Eagles playing the Seahawks, but the fact that Dallas is already down one head-to-head game against Philly, they’re going to need this game before their date with the Eagles next week if they still want a shot at winning the division. Do you think Dallas has what it takes to pull this one off? Probably not if you’re familiar with Dallas Cowboys football of the past eight years or so. I know Dallas usually likes to make their ineptitude interesting and wait until the last game of the season to blow a likely playoff spot, but I feel like it happens this week, and then Jerry Jones gets to spend a couple of weeks assuring the media his coach’s job is safe while constantly standing behind him and sharpening a straight razor on a leather strap.
Baltimore +3 vs. MIAMI
This is the most important game of the week as far as playoff implications go, as it involves the biggest swing in fortunes of the winner and the loser. Unfortunately it’s between two boring teams that nobody gives a shit about. Does anybody want either of these teams in the playoffs? I don’t know. Does anybody want to hear “Simply Having a Wonderful Christmastime” 1000 times over the next month? Yeah, maybe a handful of sick and deranged individuals, but for most of the population it’s a goddamned nightmare.
Indianapolis -3.5 vs. CLEVELAND
Oh poor Browns fans. You didn’t want to get your hopes up. You TRIED not to get your hopes up. Then your team handed the Bengals their own dicks on a skewer a few Thursdays ago, and you thought “You know what? WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOMETHING HERE!” But you don’t. You never do. You have a disgusting river and the haunting skeleton of industry and sure Lebron is back but everyone hates Lebron and even YOU hated Lebron until he threw your trash town a bone and came back only because the team lucked into three first overall picks and Dwywyfrane Wade turned into a corpse. Oh yeah and that team isn’t even good either. You just better hope that Johnny Football breaking shit in hotels keeps your economy afloat for a little while because this team is toast.
Pittsburgh +3 vs. CINCINNATI
Well, now that the Steelers are playing a winning team again, expect them to win this game by a solid 24 points. How, exactly, they have been so incredibly bad against the worst that the NFL has to offer is beyond me, but I can’t say I’m not enjoying it. Everyone seems to be racing to lose this division after those awful games on Sunday, and I think we can expect more awful games from an awful division full of awful cities. I bring it up a lot, but I really can’t stress how terrible it must be to live within the cone of despair and industrial decay that this division occupies. Seriously, if you ranked every NFL city based on quality of life, the only cities ANY of these places might out-rank are Detroit and Buffalo (which might as well be AFC North cities anyway) and probably Jacksonville, which is just a swamp made out of sex offenders.
Houston -5 vs. JACKSONVILLE
Oh hi Jacksonville. Didn’t see you there. Anyway, this is it. This is the week that the Texans put JJ Watt on the field by himself and just let him play 1 vs. 11. Otherwise it isn’t fair, because the Jaguars don’t even have any real NFL players. “But Rich, didn’t they just beat the New York Football Giants?!” Well sure, but that’s only because Tom Coughlin died weeks ago and he’s been propped up and paraded around a-la “Weekend at Bernie’s” in an elaborate scheme for Eli Manning to stay up past his bedtime.
NY Giants -1 vs. TENNESSEE
Speak of the devils! They should just tell the fans in Nashville that instead of a football game they’re going to see a Toby Keith concert and pray they get too drunk to know the difference.
NEW ORLEANS -10 vs. Carolina
OH MY GOD EW GET IT OFF ME!!!!!!
DETROIT -10 vs. Tampa Bay
WHAT THE FUCK I TOLD YOU TO GET IT OFF ME!!! Honestly though, two NFC South teams on the road getting ten points, one of them playing ANOTHER NFC South team, and I can’t even in good conscience take the points. I would LOVE to be able to take ten points in December and hope for a back-door cover against second stringers, but I don’t even trust these teams to do THAT much. Then you imagine what Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are going to do against Lovie’s Cover 2 and all you can think is “Goddammit I have to lay the ten.” Gambling is stupid.
WASHINGTON +2.5 vs. St. Louis
I don’t even know what the fuck I’m doing here. I really don’t. I just look at this match-up and assume that since the NFL is weird and fucked up, that when you get two teams together that aren’t very good, weird and fucked up things can happen, and sometimes those weird and fucked up things involve Colt McCoy winning a football game. I don’t have any real reasoning to back up this pick. Just the fact that the Rams have been playing too well for a team that shouldn’t be playing so well.
Also I don’t really have anything extra to say about St. Louis law enforcement’s reaction to Rams receivers doing the “Hands Up Don’t Shoot” gesture before the game last week, other than that if they were really that upset about it they should have just shot them all with no consequences other than that sweet, sweet TV money.
MINNESOTA -6 vs. NY Jets
WOOOOOOF
DENVER -9.5 vs. Buffalo
Kyle Orton goes back to Denver! And only the media and his “Debbie” tattoo in the Colorado Avalanche font can remind him that he actually lived there for a couple of years. I would be of the mind that Buffalo’s defensive line could keep this game close, but Buffalo really isn’t going to be able to hang. Then again, maybe the mile high air will give Orton that loopy drunken feeling he needs to take the edge off and become a far more talented and handsome quarterback than he had ever imagined. Even then, he’ll probably spend most of his time in the huddle telling his receivers about that time he totally could have felt up the girl from the GoDaddy.com ads at the Super Bowl if she hadn’t been a prude and got mad when he threw up in her limo.
Kansas City PK vs. ARIZONA
I look for Arizona to continue their descent into mediocrity as Andy Reid spends his time in the desert with a napkin tucked into his shirt, fork and knife in hand, and a rocket strapped to his back in an effort to sample the local cuisine.
OAKLAND +8 vs. San Francisco
Hey, Jim Harbaugh might get traded here! He gets a firsthand look at what he’s in for if that actually happens! Honestly after the Raiders got crushed last week by St. Louis and with the 49ers needing a win I feel stupid not picking San Fran. HOWEVER, the 49ers are 25th in points per game, scoring fewer points each week than outright bad offensive teams like Washington, Minnesota, Buffalo, the Giants, St. Louis, Chicago, and Arizona. Can this team even score eight points this week? I don’t fucking know man, but Jesus look at that list of teams and tell me again that this team is a dark-horse to make a Super Bowl run.
Knowing he could potentially end up in this dumpster full-time, I expect Jim Harbaugh to stab at least six people on the way out of the stadium so he’s never allowed back in Oakland again. Then he’ll probably fly to Los Angeles and San Antonio and stab a bunch of people there too just to make sure he’s covered all his bases. Or maybe because he just likes stabbing people. I don’t know what the man does on his days off.
Seattle +1 vs. PHILADELPHIA
Listen, I know everyone is all “OHMYGODCHIPKELLY!!” and wondering what the Eagles are going to do next, but I assure you, what they’re going to do next is lose at home to the Seahawks. I know the Seahawks aren’t the team they were last year, and Philly’s defense has been a pleasant surprise but that’s in addition to an offense that has been secretly not as good as advertised. The Eagles have scored more on special teams than any team in the league by a wide margin, may I direct your attention towards MARK FUCKING SANCHEZ AGAINST THE SEATTLE DEFENSE. They are going to knock Mark Sanchez’ dick loose and then Pete Carroll is going to slap a “Stay In School” bumper sticker on his back during the post-game handshake.
New England -3 vs. SAN DIEGO
Gambling logic dictates that you’re always supposed to take a West Coast team in night games against an East Coast team, and the fact that this line looks suspiciously low also gives me some pause. But the Pats have been a particularly tough team to bet against, and I don’t know what the hell to expect from the Chargers except that Phillip Rivers is going to yell a lot and probably deny the fact that dinosaurs ever existed. This won’t be a good strategy because Darrelle Revis fucking loves dinosaurs and he’s going to get real angry if you try to tell them they were made up by the devil.
GREEN BAY -12.5 vs. Atlanta
Is Green Bay the best team in football after a more-convincing-than-it-looked win over New England on Sunday? Sure, for right now. But that’s the problem with claiming a team is the best before the season is over. It’s a different team every week and most of the time some random bullshit happens and when Eli Manning or Ben Roethelisberger ends up holding the Lombardi Trophy everyone is stuck asking themselves “What the fuck was that all about???”
I think Green Bay will handle Atlanta pretty easily on Monday night, but mostly because Atlanta is very bad and Green Bay will be very cold and if the Pats defense couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers then Atlanta’s has no chance because their defense is made up of some sticks, a few paperclips, some glue, and a rapist. Also Mike Smith has finally been exposed as the terrible coach everyone suspected he was a long time ago since his team is no longer winning regularly despite his fuck-ups. I would definitely like to see this team win the division at 6-10 and have to wring their hands over whether to fire him or not. Every coach in the NFC South should be fired this season and be stripped of all past accomplishments and have to start over as ball boys on respectable teams for what they’ve been putting us through for the past 13 weeks. I may be willing to negotiate this down to a written apology and subsequent deportation to the CFL.
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 7-9-0 *that boink sound America’s Funniest Home Videos makes when a dad gets hit in the dick with a wiffle ball bat*
