Welcome to the first playoff edition of DICK PICKS: the only online NFL gambling column that doubles as a bed time story if your family is poor.
They’re here! The playoffs are here! (Most of) the shitty teams are gone and we get to watch the NFL’s elite teams plus Carolina and Arizona spend a few weeks trying not to fuck up horribly and ruin their shot at a Super Bowl.
Speaking of fucking up, I finished the season at a disappointing 123-127-6. Because I did a fairly poor job this year, I went back to my season preview articles, found here and here, to see if I was doomed from the start, and I found that I was… pretty good! My season over/under total predictions ended up at 19-12-1, with an especially strong 11-5 showing in the NFC. I had some bad misses (Arizona, Dallas, New Orleans, Oakland) but also some very solid hits (Chicago, Carolina, Indianapolis, Tennessee.) So if I was such a goddamned genius at the beginning of the season then why the fuck did I do so poorly predicting the games? I DON’T KNOW IT’S REAL FRUSTRATING YOU GUYS! The playoffs are like a whole new season though! And a whole new chance for me to REALLY fuck things up and lose a bunch of money.
This weekend’s games are driving me particularly crazy, because I really want to just pack it all in and bet all the favorites. But I KNOW at least two of the underdogs will end up covering, and I bet at least one wins outright. Who those teams are going to be is not in the least bit clear, but blind speculation is what this country was founded on so in the words of Thomas Jefferson: “Fuck it. Let’s throw some shit at the wall and see what sticks. Also, check out the ass on that slave lady over there. Mmmm somebody call Lewis and Clark because I’m about to get LOST in there.” ON TO THE PICKS! As always, home teams are in caps.
Arizona +6.5 vs. CAROLINA
This game is a tough one, because how do you in good conscience pick Ryan Lindley to cover in a road playoff game? Over the past few weeks it looked like the only thing Ryan Lindley would be covering were his eyes when he watched game film of himself, because he plays very poorly and nobody wants to watch that shit. If somebody was brutally murdered on the field while Ryan Lindley was throwing a pass the game tape wouldn’t even be submitted as evidence at the trial because of the graphic and disgusting nature of the way this man plays quarterback.
THAT DEFENSE THOUGH!!! That’s the only justification I have of picking Arizona, because I think their defense will keep this game within a touchdown. Carolina’s offense still isn’t good just because they’ve been beating up on the sad-sack teams in their garbage division. We’re looking at another 12-7 game like the Cardinals/Rams Thursday night dumpster baby from a month ago. I’m already throwing up and I’m not even that hungover anymore.
Also, how lucky is Carolina? They fall ass-backwards into a home playoff game by being the best awful team in the worst division in league history, and then they get Ryan Lindley in the first round? Is there a 7 or 8 win team in the league that you would rather run into in the playoffs than the 11 win Cardinals? Oh yeah, Cleveland. But really, only Cleveland. Despite all of that, the Panthers may be just incompetent enough to fuck this up, so I’ll play it safe and take the points and then start drinking brown liquor once Carolina picks off three passes in the first half.
PITTSBURGH -3 vs. Baltimore
It’s the NFL’s most obnoxious rivalry! With a new twist! Neither of these teams can play defense this time around! Both of these secondaries are bad enough that any pass traveling more than ten yards downfield is liable to go for a score. You might as well call them fourtharies because they are twice as bad as a normal secondary *checks bank account and watches $1 million dollars be immediately deposited after writing that joke* This is troublesome for a Pittsburgh team that will have to cover Steve and Torrey Smith (no relation, probably, but Steve Smith could very well be his dad and I just haven’t gotten around to looking that up yet.) It is even worse news, however, for the Ravens, because their trash defensive backs will have to make a hilarious attempt at covering Antonio Brown. If I can slip into my Jon Gruden voice for a moment: I call Antonio Brown “24 Hour Wal-Mart” because he’s always open and he’s the only thing that can get a black-lunged mongoloid Yinzer’s dick hard anymore.
Even without Le’ev’eo’n Bell at full strength (or at all) it shouldn’t matter too much because Baltimore is going to get torched on the back end by Pittsburgh’s wideouts. They will need to sack Big Ben on approximately all of his drop-backs to prevent him from throwing for 500 yards and six touchdowns. Now, they can keep it close if Joe Flacco harnesses his uni-brow powers and turns into playoff Joe Flacco from two years ago, but fuck if I’m going to bet on “Just Got Paid” Joe Flacco on the road in the playoffs.
Regardless of what happens in this game, one VERY annoying fan-base is going to move on to the second round. I can’t tell if I would rather it be the “WE ALWAYS DO EVERYTHING THE RIGHT WAY(except when our quarterback commits sexual assault and our running backs smoke weed in front of a cop)” Steelers or the “EVERYBODY IS AGAINST US AND WE ARE ALWAYS THE VICTIMS (unless the victim is a real person like the wife of our running back or the guy our most revered player killed)” Ravens. I think I would rather go back and cheer for the Allies to lose World War II.
INDIANAPOLIS -3 vs. Cincinnati
This might be the most baffling game of the weekend to me. I can’t figure out which version of each team is going to show up, because they both have the ability to play very well or to be run out of the stadium like they were trying to defend evolution to their fans. Since I have no fucking idea about how the rest of their teams will play around them, I will base this pick solely on the quarterbacks because that’s what people do with the NFL now and it’s a cheap and easy way of not analyzing a game. “Hmmm… well you always have to go with the team with the better quarterback. What’s that? His defense gave up 50 points and he was sacked six times and threw four interceptions? WELL HE CAN’T PLAY ALL THE POSITIONS!!! I WASN’T WRONG I’M JUST VERY DISAPPOINTED THAT THE REST OF HIS TEAM DIDN’T STEP UP AND HAND HIM THIS GAME!!!” See? So easy. And now I can’t be “wrong” for making this pick because I never said Indy was better than Cincinnati, I said Andrew Luck is better than Andy Dalton! This is why I’m a genius with his own football column and a $50 haircut, and you’re just some schmuck.
Andy Dalton is one of the worst playoff quarterbacks I can remember, but just because he’s been bad in his other three games doesn’t mean he’ll be bad in this one. BUT the fact that he’s been bad in most football games he has played over his entire career means that he’s LIKELY to be bad in this one as well. All of the action seems to be going towards Cincinnati, as the line has moved down, like, a lot. This might be because people are finally realizing that the Colts suck a little bit. Unfortunately, the Bengals suck too. I will take the home team with the superior quarterback.
Detroit +6.5 vs. DALLAS
I know. What the fuck am I doing here picking Detroit? Picking against Dallas basically killed me for the entire season, and we get to the playoffs and I still don’t learn my lesson. Matt Stafford sucks in meaningful games. The Detroit offense has been stagnant. Dallas has looked impressive on offense. They have the best o-line and running game in football. Their pass defense, led by Pro-Bowler Orlando Scandrick, has been so much better than expected that they’re going to start advising all of their personnel to take amphetamine-laced ecstasy in the offseason.
So let’s answer the question: Why the fuck would I consider taking the Lions (excluding the known facts of my idiocy, substance abuse, and history of head trauma?) Well, the main reason is that instead of using the logic of the above paragraph to make a decision based on reason, I’ve decided to make my decision based on feelings. Like I’m some kind of Italian.
This just FEELS like a sucker bet to me. For all of the reasons above, it would seem crazy not to bet the Cowboys, at home, against a Lions team that feels completely exposed after blowout losses to the Pats and Packers, and unconvincing wins over terrible opponents. BUT THEN WHY IS VEGAS GIVING DETROIT LESS THAN A TOUCHDOWN?!! They want you to bet the Cowboys. They NEED YOU to bet the Cowboys. I am NOT betting the Cowboys. Do I look stupid to you? *leans back in computer chair, chair falls over, crashes through the floor and falls directly to hell, lands on and crushes Satan’s favorite pet* Oh no…
LAST WEEK: 7-8-1 *record scratch that just goes on FOREVER*
SEASON TOTAL: 123-127-6
