Welcome to another edition of DICK PICKS: the only online NFL gambling column that knows how to stop ISIS but won’t tell anyone until they stop making movies about South Boston.
Last week was kind of a bust for my overall record, but I still made money because I only bet on the good games and none of the stupid ones that I probably convinced some of you idiots to bet on. The one shocker is that none of my bets were fucked by the new extra point rules, which I am 100% confident will happen sooner rather than later. Eventually teams will realize that going for two every time is the smart move as long as you are confident in your ability to score at least one more touchdown (sorry Tampa and Cleveland.) Four extra points were missed on Sunday, but none of them had much impact on the spreads. This will most definitely change once the weather gets bad and half of the fields look like they hosted monster truck rallies the night before. Savor your minor success now kickers, because come November you will have all the confidence of a recent college graduate applying for a homeowner’s loan.
On paper this looked like a pretty fucked up week, but once you look a little deeper at the games none of the upsets should look all that surprising. Seattle kind of always sucks in St. Louis (probably because it’s extra quiet since nobody wants to be there especially during baseball season when the Cardinals or maybe somebody in the Cardinals division is playing a game) and their offensive line was expected to be pretty shitty. Going up against dominant defensive fronts like the Rams, they sort of just figure “hey our quarterback is a tiny little fast guy who hopefully won’t get hit too much so fuck it let’s surround him with screen doors in eye-black.”
Denver and Baltimore’s clusterfuck could also be explained by two solid defenses going up against quarterbacks that are in new offensive systems and also might not be as good as everyone thinks. Is Peyton Manning done? That’s a question we’re all going to be sick of hearing pretty soon unless he gets benched and I start dancing around my living room with my dick hanging like Lenny Kravitz. Is Joe Flacco elite? That’s a question we’re ALREADY sick of because elite doesn’t matter when on a week to week basis Tyrod Taylor can look like prime Mike Vick and Andrew Luck can look like prime Jeff George.
Speaking of that game, which was the other scoreboard “shocker,” we all knew Buffalo’s defense was going to be a wrecking crew full of bear-sized men with appetites for human flesh (pretty much regular bears, but not the gay sexual kind, the kind that live in the woods and DON’T like to be spanked. Not even a little.) We also should have guessed that Indy would have a sub-par defense since losing 45-7 in the AFC championship wasn’t enough for them to address that side of the ball. They are basically trying to cure their alcoholism by doing enough coke to keep them from passing out on the cab ride home. This works IN THEORY but does not address the root of the problem.
What’s in store for this week? We don’t know, because we still don’t actually know shit about any of these teams (except for Tampa and Cleveland) so everything will again be left up to blind speculation. So let’s blindly speculate!
ON TO THE PICKS!
As always, home team is in caps.
KANSAS CITY -3 vs. Denver
OH GOOD A THURSDAY NIGHT GAME WITH TWO OFFENSES THAT LOOKED LIKE THEY COULD STILL — USE A FEW WEEKS WORK FIGURING THINGS OUT! That should make for some entertaining sporting entertainment! Surely the short week won’t have any ill-effect on the scoring here! *sad trombone*
Everyone was talking about how thin Andy Reid looked this week and I have to agree that his wife tricking him into eating his own stomach like Itchy did to Scratchy has worked wonders for his figure.
Houston +3 vs. CAROLINA
Michael Oher is to Cam Newton what that Chinese kid was to Tianamen Square. JJ Watt is the tank.
NEW ORLEANS -10.5 vs. Tampa Bay
HAHAHAHAHAHA LET US ALL BASK IN THE GLORY THAT IS JAMEIS WINSTON’S ABJECT FAILURE! To be fair it was only partly Jameis’ fault, as a rookie quarterback hasn’t seen that many openings since Mark Sanchez visited a Long Island high school. I can confidently say that Drew Brees, despite looking a little shaky on Sunday, is better than Marcus Mariota right now. Lovie Smith hasn’t changed his defensive scheme in 42 years, so to prepare the Saints might as well watch video of the 2006 Bears and say “okay picture that with no good players and no sense of positioning. THAT’S WHAT WE’RE UP AGAINST THIS WEEKEND BOYS!” I predict Lovie won’t last through week six and the Bucs will be wishing they had Schiano back. “Sure, he poisoned our entire team with a deadly virus, BUT WHAT A MOTIVATOR!!!”
PITTSBURGH -6.5 vs. San Francisco
Hoooooo Boy was Mike Tomlin pissy after that loss in New England. “We couldn’t HEAR through our HEADSETS! Do you know what happened in the ’60s when teams didn’t have headsets? EVERYONE DIED!” Ben got in on the whining too, complaining that the Patriots did something illegal that they had seen on film and should have expected but fucked up anyway. “I mean, we knew watching tape that this team sometimes threw to the tight end, but we thought there was a GENTLEMAN’S AGREEMENT to not do that anymore!” Fuck off, the both of you.
Despite their defense looking like a Benny Hill sketch, I still think they cover because I don’t trust San Fran to stop anybody who isn’t having their strings pulled by Norv Turner. Carlos Hyde won me both of my fantasy games this week, but my loyalty only goes so far. Ask Matt Damon *emotionally throws picture of me and Matt Damon laughing and embracing into a roaring fire*
Detroit +3 vs. MINNESOTA
I picked both of these teams last week, and they were both horrible disappointments and I wish they had Chinese parents to shame them for not living up to expectations.
New England -1 vs. BUFFALO
This is a probably stupid pick but I refuse to believe in Tyrod Taylor and I am a shameless homer. Buffalo’s defense is terrifying, but if Bill Belichick can’t cook up a scheme to stop Taylor (cyanide? Dress a horse to play defensive end?) then Buffalo deserves to win. For some reason the Bills feel like an 8-8 team that goes 6-2 at home and 2-6 on the road. This is a game the Patriots typically lose anyway, which will lead to screams of “TRADE BRADY” and “FIRE BELICHICK” and “YANKEES SUCK” all throughout the Boston area. BUT FUCK IT. I’m still taking the Pats, but if they lose I won’t even be mad (unless the Bills pour Gatorade on Rex Ryan. Then I will fight upstate New York with a damn shovel.)
Arizona -2.5 vs. CHICAGO
I’m going to keep this anti-Jay Cutler train rolling because he never seems to disappoint. I was worried for a minute that Green Bay wasn’t going to cover on Sunday, but then Jay Cutler showed up and did what Jay Cutler does. I felt like a dog whose owner goes to the store and thinks that he could be gone forever so I stand at the window worrying but THEN HE COMES BACK EVERY TIME! That’s what betting against Jay Cutler is like.
Tennessee -1 vs. CLEVELAND
This slate of games is pretty fucking thin, and I guess you could make an argument for being excited about Mariota vs. Manziel, but why would you do that? What is wrong with you? Tennessee has an easy-as-hell schedule and could drag themselves toward .500, and Cleveland sucks and will be looking for a new coach and a new quarterback at the end of the season. You know who else threw 4 touchdown passes in his first NFL start? Hitler (per ESPN Stats and Information.)
San Diego +3.5 vs. CINCINNATI
If Jesus had a dick both of these quarterbacks would suck Jesus’s dick. Also fuck San Diego for using Danny Woodhead on the goal-line instead of Melvin Gordon, inspiring idiots on the internet everywhere to tout the values of undrafted white guys out of tiny colleges vs. highly regarded prospects out of major conference schools. Danny Woodhead scored because the Lions thought “Okay there’s no way in hell they’re giving the ball to Danny Woodhead right now. No fucking way.” Danny Woodhead scores because confused defenses thing the Chargers are just throwing a Make-a-Wish kid a bone.
St. Louis -3.5 vs. WASHINGTON
If you’re counting, that’s SEVEN away teams I’ve taken so far and I already want to throw my computer at a bird because I am far from done with that bullshit. Washington made Miami’s offense look like shit, and they still covered because Washington is a dying Eskimo of a franchise that needs to be stacked on an ice floe and pushed out to sea. St. Louis somehow brings a better defensive line than the Dolphins into this game, and Aaron Donald is going to be eating Kirk Cousins’ lunch all afternoon like that asshole in your office who pretends he can’t read your name on the bag even though you wrote it in giant block letters Darren!
Atlanta +2.5 vs. NY GIANTS
Hahahahahahaha fuck me I’m toast this week. Sunday night’s game was such a debacle that it could have ended the Giants’ season right as it started. Eli’s blank stare this weekend at least should have some meaning behind it. Atlanta needs to go for the jugular right now so this team doesn’t squeak out nine wins and another Super Bowl championship. Nobody wants to see old man Coughlin’s face in HD in January. He looks like someone stapled roast beef to a pinata.
Baltimore vs. OAKLAND N/A
There is no line out for this game yet which is what sucks about writing this column early just because some people were stupid enough to book me to do comedy shows all week. Derek Carr is hurt, but we don’t know how badly yet which is why the line is off. So fuck you Derek Carr for ruining my week. The Raiders also lost all of their safeties pretty much, so I’ll give my pick on Twitter when the line comes out, but let’s just assume I’m taking Baltimore (another road team! HOORAY!) because I was laughably incorrect about the Raiders’ prospects for this season. Just like I was wrong about 9/11 (I said it was going to rain and it didn’t rain so I had to carry a jacket around all day like an idiot.)
Miami -6.5 vs. JACKSONVILLE
REALLY???? This is getting ridiculous and I don’t even know what to do about it. I will go 5-11 this week and it’s all the NFL’s fault for their scheduling bullshit. Does Jacksonville even have a home stadium? I figured they just played in a dirt lot next to an Outback Steakhouse. This is the closest thing I’ve picked to a home team in 9 picks, because at least most people in Florida are Dolphins fans now that Miami is the only team some television assholes said might make the playoffs.
Miami is going to live and die by Ryan Tannehill because that’s the bed they made for themselves and now they have to lie in it with him and wife isn’t even in there it’s just dopey Ryan Tannehill and a bunch of old dudes who had to pay him a lot of money. Ryan Tannehill is the worst gigolo ever. The Dolphins paid him because they couldn’t get laid otherwise and now they have to hope he can get it up or else their special night is ruined. This analogy made sense in my head for a little bit but then I lost it.
Dallas +4.5 vs. PHILADELPHIA
TEN IN A ROW AND 11 OUT OF 14! YAHTZEE!!! The others are potential toss-ups, sure, but what the fuck with this line??? Is this all because of Dez??? I know the man is a freak of nature but seriously what the fuck??? What does Vegas know that I don’t? Has Chip Kelly hired snipers to take down Tony Romo at the coin toss? Did a wizard rub magical crystals all over Sam Bradford at halftime of the Atlanta game? IS TIM TEBOW STARTING FOR THE EAGLES???? I can’t think of a scenario where this line makes a lick of sense to me. A pick ’em I could see. Philly -3 if you’re drunk. Just don’t give me this bullshit about Chip Kelly’s offense when they couldn’t run for dick against the Falcons and they are starting two windmills at guard. This is a blatant attempt to try and scare me into laying the points and I WILL NOT OBLIGE (I will lose upwards of $500 on this game.)
GREEN BAY -3.5 vs. Seattle
A SUNDAY NIGHT GAME THAT ISN’T THE NFC EAST! AND I PICKED A HOME TEAM FINALLY! What a good job. I’m the greatest.
I think this game is as simple as Green Bay following the Patriots lead from the Super Bowl and finding plenty of guys underneath. They can also mix in Eddie Lacey to keep the Seahawks honest. The Packers didn’t look great trying to stop Matt Forte but Seattle’s offensive line is already dogshit and Dom Capers blitzes everyone all the time so not only will they be bad but they will also be tired. Then Pete Carroll will pretend he doesn’t miss Kam Chancellor or Max Unger while looking at pictures of them in his car and listening to “Take it on the Run” on repeat.
INDIANAPOLIS -7 vs. NY Jets
Strength vs. Weakness on both sides of the ball! Todd Bowles will keep watching that Buffalo tape to figure out the best way to fuck up Andrew Luck’s day and my computer will keep suggesting that I correct his name to “Bowels.” I don’t think it will matter though. The Colts are still the Colts and the Jets are still the Jets, and despite Indy’s flaws being exposed they’re not going to lose their home opener to Ryan Fitzpatrick. They ended this man’s season last year and I expect them to end any talk of the Jets maybe being a potential playoff sleeper if you squint really hard and forget that they are the Jets and their locker room is a black hole of sadness and regret. Please remember that these are the Jets. DO NOT FORGET that these are the Jets. In six weeks we will be seeing headlines that say “Anonymous teammate suggests that Brandon Marshall is North Korean spy.” All the Fitzmagic in the world won’t suck the poison out of this gangrenous limb slowly rotting away from the rest of the NFL.